A Trump Conviction In Senate Is Unlikely

Impeachment of former President Trump in the senate is underway, but unlikely to happen as Senator Rand Paul points out in the video above.

In the case of presidential impeachment trials, the chief justice of the United States presides. The Constitution requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate to convict, and the penalty for an impeached official upon conviction is removal from office. (U.S. Senate Website - The Senate's Impeachment Role)

The first issue is that President Trump is no longer "President Trump." He is now a private citizen. Congress cannot impeach a private citizen. That is one of the reasons that the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court refused to preside over the hearing.

Impeachment in the Senate his conducted like a trial. According to the rules, in order to have that trial the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court must preside. Since the Chief Justice is refusing to preside, their cannot be a legitimate trial. Therefore, there cannot be a legitimate impeachment.

The second problem for Democrats is a lack of votes. The senate is split 50/50 with the vice president, who is a Democrat, casting the vote to split any tie. However, in order to impeach the senate will need a 2/3rds majority. Even with a few swing votes like Mitt Romney, Democrats do not have enough votes.

“If more than 34 Republicans vote against the constitutionality of the proceeding, the whole thing’s dead on arrival,” (Senator Rand Paul).

So, without the Chief Justice, and without the votes, and without a president to impeach this process becomes moot. At this point, the questions should be asked: why continue with it? The answer is most likely, political showmanship. Any opportunity one party see's to do damage against the other it will take.